In this paper, we evaluate the robustness and recovery of connected critical infrastructures (CIs) under a system-of-systems (SoS) framework taking into account: (1) the dependencies among the components of an individual CI and the interdependencies among different CIs; (2) the variability in component performance, by a multistate model; and (3) the epistemic uncertainty in the probabilities of transitions between different components states and in the mean values of the holding-times distributions, by means of intervals. We adopt the goal tree success tree–dynamic master logic diagram (GTST–DMLD) for system modeling and perform the quantitative assessment by Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the approach by way of a simplified case study consisting of two interdependent infrastructures (electric power system and gas network) and a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system connected to the gas network.
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September 2015
Research Papers
Analysis of the Robustness and Recovery of Critical Infrastructures by Goal Tree–Success Tree: Dynamic Master Logic Diagram, Within a Multistate System-of-Systems Framework, in the Presence of Epistemic Uncertainty
E. Ferrario,
E. Ferrario
Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge,
European Foundation for New Energy, Electricité de France, École Centrale Paris–Supelec
, Grande Voie des Vignes, 92295 Chatenay Malabry
, France
e-mail: elisa.ferrario@ecp.fr
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N. Pedroni,
N. Pedroni
Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge,
European Foundation for New Energy, Electricité de France, École Centrale Paris–Supelec
, Grande Voie des Vignes, 92295 Chatenay Malabry
, France
e-mails: nicola.pedroni@ecp.fr, nicola.pedroni@supelec.fr
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E. Zio
E. Zio
Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge,
European Foundation for New Energy, Electricité de France, École Centrale Paris–Supelec
, Grande Voie des Vignes, 92295 Chatenay Malabry
, France
; Politecnico di Milano
, 20133 Milano
, Italy
e-mails: enrico.zio@ecp.fr, enrico.zio@supelec.fr, enrico.zio@polimi.it
Search for other works by this author on:
E. Ferrario
Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge,
European Foundation for New Energy, Electricité de France, École Centrale Paris–Supelec
, Grande Voie des Vignes, 92295 Chatenay Malabry
, France
e-mail: elisa.ferrario@ecp.fr
N. Pedroni
Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge,
European Foundation for New Energy, Electricité de France, École Centrale Paris–Supelec
, Grande Voie des Vignes, 92295 Chatenay Malabry
, France
e-mails: nicola.pedroni@ecp.fr, nicola.pedroni@supelec.fr
E. Zio
Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge,
European Foundation for New Energy, Electricité de France, École Centrale Paris–Supelec
, Grande Voie des Vignes, 92295 Chatenay Malabry
, France
; Politecnico di Milano
, 20133 Milano
, Italy
e-mails: enrico.zio@ecp.fr, enrico.zio@supelec.fr, enrico.zio@polimi.itManuscript received July 29, 2014; final manuscript received January 14, 2015; published online July 1, 2015. Assoc. Editor: Alba Sofi.
ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B. Sep 2015, 1(3): 031001 (14 pages)
Published Online: July 1, 2015
Article history
Received:
July 29, 2014
Revision Received:
January 14, 2015
Accepted:
April 27, 2015
Online:
July 1, 2015
Citation
Ferrario, E., Pedroni, N., and Zio, E. (July 1, 2015). "Analysis of the Robustness and Recovery of Critical Infrastructures by Goal Tree–Success Tree: Dynamic Master Logic Diagram, Within a Multistate System-of-Systems Framework, in the Presence of Epistemic Uncertainty." ASME. ASME J. Risk Uncertainty Part B. September 2015; 1(3): 031001. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4030439
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