The estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk analysis and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plant systems. This paper describes a hierarchical or two-stage Poisson-gamma Bayesian procedure and applies this to estimate the failure frequency using the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency pipe leakage data for the United States nuclear plants. In the first stage, a generic distribution of failure rate is developed based on the failure observations from a group of similar plants. This distribution represents the interplant (plant-to-plant) variability arising from differences in construction, operation, and maintenance conditions. In the second stage, the generic prior obtained from the first stage is updated by using the data specific to a particular plant, and thus a posterior distribution of plan specific failure rate is derived. The two-stage Bayesian procedure is able to incorporate different levels of variability in a more consistent manner.
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July 2010
Research Papers
Bayesian Analysis of Piping Leak Frequency Using OECD/NEA Data
Min Wang,
Min Wang
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Waterloo
, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
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Mahesh D. Pandey,
Mahesh D. Pandey
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Waterloo
, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
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Jovica R. Riznic
Jovica R. Riznic
Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
, Ottawa, ON, K1P 5S9, Canada
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Min Wang
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Waterloo
, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
Mahesh D. Pandey
Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Waterloo
, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
Jovica R. Riznic
Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
, Ottawa, ON, K1P 5S9, CanadaJ. Eng. Gas Turbines Power. Jul 2010, 132(7): 072902 (7 pages)
Published Online: April 26, 2010
Article history
Received:
July 21, 2009
Revised:
July 28, 2009
Online:
April 26, 2010
Published:
April 26, 2010
Citation
Wang, M., Pandey, M. D., and Riznic, J. R. (April 26, 2010). "Bayesian Analysis of Piping Leak Frequency Using OECD/NEA Data." ASME. J. Eng. Gas Turbines Power. July 2010; 132(7): 072902. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4000343
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