The main objective of generation risk assessment (GRA) is to assess the impact of equipment unavailability and failures on the ability of the plant to produce power over time. The system reliability models employed for this purpose are based on the standard fault tree/event tree approach, which assumes failure rates to be constant. However, this ignores the impact of aging degradation and results in static estimates of expected generation loss. Component and equipment degradation not only increases the probability of failure over time, but also contributes to generation risk through increased unavailability and costs arising from greater requirement for inspection and replacement of degraded components. This paper discusses some of the key challenges associated with integrating the results of component degradation models into GRA. Because many analytical and simulation methods are subject to limitations, the methodology and modeling approach proposed in this work builds on the current GRA practice using the fault tree approach. The modeling of component degradation can be done separately at the fault tree cut set level, assuming the cut sets are independent and the component unavailabilities are relatively small. In order to capture the joint contribution of equipment failure and unavailability to generation risk, new risk-based importance measures are also developed using the concept of net present value.
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October 2010
Research Papers
Integration of Degradation Models Into Generation Risk Assessment: Challenges and Modeling Approaches
Mikko I. Jyrkama,
Mikko I. Jyrkama
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
e-mail: mjyrkama@uwaterloo.ca
University of Waterloo
, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
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Mahesh D. Pandey,
Mahesh D. Pandey
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Waterloo
, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
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Stephen M. Hess
Stephen M. Hess
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
, West Chester, PA 19382
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Mikko I. Jyrkama
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Waterloo
, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canadae-mail: mjyrkama@uwaterloo.ca
Mahesh D. Pandey
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,
University of Waterloo
, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
Stephen M. Hess
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
, West Chester, PA 19382J. Eng. Gas Turbines Power. Oct 2010, 132(10): 102916 (8 pages)
Published Online: July 8, 2010
Article history
Received:
August 5, 2009
Revised:
August 20, 2009
Online:
July 8, 2010
Published:
July 8, 2010
Citation
Jyrkama, M. I., Pandey, M. D., and Hess, S. M. (July 8, 2010). "Integration of Degradation Models Into Generation Risk Assessment: Challenges and Modeling Approaches." ASME. J. Eng. Gas Turbines Power. October 2010; 132(10): 102916. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4000892
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