Determining and Forecasting Regional Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Turkey

In parallel to the increase in population and industrialization, the electricity demand of Turkey has been increasing rapidly in recent years. This has caused a noticeable increase in CO₂ emission from electricity generation, especially due to the use of fossil fuelled power plants. These plants are mostly located in highly industrialized regions to reduce transmission loses and in regions with large amounts of coal and lignite reservoirs. In addition, using vast amounts of low quality lignite with high ash and sulphur contents in these power plants have affected these regions in recent years. Determining the pollutant emissions, and especially CO₂ emissions, from these plants has been more significant after the ratification of Kyoto Protocol by Turkey in 2009. Within the context of this study, electricity generation associated CO₂ emissions from existing power plants that run between 2001 and 2008 are determined. In addition to this, associated CO₂ emissions from the power plants that are planned to be operated between 2009 and 2020 are also estimated. All assessments are made for nine load distribution regions in which electricity is generated and transmitted in Turkey. Therefore, regional electricity generation and associated CO₂ emissions, and the shares of renewable sources for electricity generation are determined between 2001 and 2020. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that determines and estimates electricity generation associated CO₂ emissions regionally for Turkey.