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Research Papers

Sensitivity Analysis on Some Profitability Indices for Photovoltaic Grid–Connected Systems on Buildings: The Case of Two Top Photovoltaic European Areas

[+] Author and Article Information
D. L. Talavera

e-mail: dlopez@ujaen.es

J. Aguilera

Grupo de Investigación y Desarrollo
de Energía Solar, IDEA,
Escuela Politécnica Superior,
University of Jaén,
Campus de Las Lagunillas,
s/n. 23071-Jaén, Spain

1Corresponding author.

Contributed by Solar Energy Division of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF SOLAR ENERGY ENGINEERING. Manuscript received January 12, 2012; final manuscript received April 14, 2012; published online June 22, 2012. Assoc. Editor: Santiago Silvestre.

J. Sol. Energy Eng 135(1), 011003 (Jun 22, 2012) (11 pages) Paper No: SOL-12-1009; doi: 10.1115/1.4006793 History: Received January 12, 2012; Revised April 14, 2012

Frequently changing regulation codes, photovoltaic (PV) technology progress and variations in economic parameters that determine a specific economic scenario make a prospective owner of photovoltaic grid-connected systems (PVGCS) on buildings require information concerning the profitability of their investment on these systems. Hence, an analysis of the main economic factors of PVGCS on buildings addressed to ascertain their influence on the latter profitability is demanded and welcome. Consequently, a sensitivity analysis of some profitability indices such as the net internal rate of return, the net present value, and the discounted payback time has been carried out. This sensitivity analysis is aimed at demonstrating the influence on these indices of possible changes in the factors that are involved in their estimation. Two scenarios have been considered that closely resemble two top PV geographical areas: Germany and Spain. The results obtained here provide clear evidence that factors such as initial investment subsidy, dividends of own capital, taxes, annual loan interest exert a relatively small and similar influence on the net internal rate of return, the net present value, and the discounted payback time. However, other factors such as the initial investment, the annual PV electricity yield, and the PV electricity unitary price have a bigger influence on these profitability indices.

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Figures

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 2

IRRn(%) as a function of the relative percentage variations of factors that characterise the scenario A

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 1

Minimum and maximum annual PV electricity yields in different countries produced by a 1-kWp system (kWh yr−1) with optimally inclined PV modules and performance ratio equal to 0.75. (Sources: European Commission Joint Research Centre 2; and National Renewable Energy Laboratory 3.)

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 3

NPV (€) as a function of the relative percentage variations of factors that characterise the scenario A

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 4

DPBT (years) as a function of the relative percentage variations of factors that characterise the scenario A

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 5

IRRn(%) as a function of the relative percentage variations of factors that characterise the scenario B

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 6

NPV (€) as a function of the relative percentage variations of factors that characterise the scenario B

Grahic Jump Location
Fig. 7

DPBT (years) as a function of the relative percentage variations of factors that characterise the scenario B

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