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TECHNICAL PAPERS

Predicting Design Wind Turbine Loads from Limited Data: Comparing Random Process and Random Peak Models

[+] Author and Article Information
LeRoy M. Fitzwater, Steven R. Winterstein

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4020

J. Sol. Energy Eng 123(4), 364-371 (Jul 01, 2001) (8 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1409561 History: Received March 01, 2001; Revised July 01, 2001
Copyright © 2001 by ASME
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References

IEC/TC8, 1998. 61400-1 Wind Turbine Generator Systems-Part 1: Safety Requirements, International Electrotechnical Commission, Geneva, Switzerland.
McCoy, T. J., Malcom, D. J., and Griffin, D. A., 1999, “An Approach to the Development of Turbine Loads in Accordance with IEC 1400-1 and ISO 2394.” A collection of the 1999 ASME Wind Energy Symposium, at the 37th AIAA Areospace Sciences Meeting, AIAA-99-0020, Reno NV, pp. 1–9.
Fitzwater, L. M., and Winterstein, S. R., 2000, “Estimation of Extremes from Limited Time Histories: The Routine MaxFits with Wind Turbine Examples,” Tech. Rep. RMS–39, Reliability of Marine Structures Program, Civil and Environmental Engineering Dept., Stanford University, Stanford, California (Under review for publication as a technical report by Sandia National Laboratory).
Madsen, P. H., Pierce, K., and Buhl, M., 1999, “Predicting Ultimate Loads for Wind Turbine Design,” A Collection of the 1999 ASME Wind Energy Symposium, at the 37th AIAA Areospace Sciences Meeting, AIAA-99-0069, Reno NV, pp. 355–364.
Hansen, A. C., 1996, Users Guide to the Wind Turbine Dynamics Computer Programs YawDyn and AeroDyn for ADAMS, Mechanical Engineering Dept., University of Utah, Salt Lake City UT.
Winterstein,  S. R., 1988, “Nonlinear Vibration Models for Extremes and Fatigue,” J. Eng. Mech., 114(10), pp. 1772–1790.
Jha, A. K., and Winterstein, S. R., 1997, “Nonlinear Random Ocean Waves: Prediction and Comparison with Data,” Tech. Rep. RMS–24, Reliability of Marine Structures Program, Civil and Environmental Engineering Dept. Stanford University, Stanford, California.
Jha, A. K., and Winterstein, S. R., 2000, “Nonlinear Random Ocean Waves: Prediction and Comparison with Data,” Proc. 19th Int. Offshore Mechanical Arctic Engineering Symp., ASME Paper No. OMEA 00-6125, pp. 1–12.
Lange, C. H., and Winterstein, S. R., 1996, “Fatigue Design of Wind Turbine Blades: Load and Resistance Factors from Limited Data,” Wind Eng., ASME, pp. 93–101.
Ronold,  K. O., Wedel-Heinen,  J., and Christensen,  C. J., 1999, “Reliability-Based Fatigue Design of Wind Turbine Rotor Blades,” Eng. Struct., 21, pp. 1101–1114.
Winterstein, S. R., and Kashef, T., 1999, “Moment-Based Load and Response Models with Wind Engineering Applications,” A Collection of the 1999 ASME Wind Energy Symposium, at the 37th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, AIAA-99-0068, Reno NV, pp. 122–128.
Winterstein, S. R., Kleiven, G., and O̸istein, H., 2001, “Comparing Extreme Wave Estimates from Hourly and Annual Data,” to appear: Proc. ISOPE-2001, ISOPE.
Haver, S., Sagli, G., and Gran, T., 1998, “Long Term Response Analysis of Fixed and Floating Structures,” Proc. Wave’98–Ocean Wave Kinematics, Dynamics and Loads on Structures, Int. OTRC Symp., pp. 240–248.
Winterstein, S. R., and Engebretsen, K., 1998, “Reliability-Based Prediction of Design Loads and Responses for Floating Ocean Structures,” Proc. of 17th Int. Offshore Mechanical Artic Engineering Symp., ASME Paper No. OMAE 98-1381.

Figures

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Empirical and fitted quadratic Weibull probability distributions of response peaks; V=20 m/sec
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Empirical and fitted quadratic Weibull probability distributions of shifted edge bending response peaks above 1.5; V=20 m/sec
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Empirical and fitted quadratic Weibull probability distributions of response peaks; V=45 m/sec
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Correlation between successive peaks; V=45 m/sec
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Simulated wind and blade loads; V=20 m/sec
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Simulated wind and blade loads; V=45 m/sec
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Bias =μ̄/M̄, where μ̄ is the average estimate of the mean 10-min maximum over the 100 simulations. M̄ is the average of the observed 10-min maxima. The wind speed is V=45 m/sec
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Sigma reduction σμM between estimated and observed 10-min maxima; V=45 m/sec
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Bias =μ̄/M̄, where μ̄ is the average estimate of the mean 10-min maximum over the 100 simulations. M̄ is the average of the observed 10-min maxima. The wind speed is V=20 m/sec.
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Sigma reduction σμM between estimated and observed 10-min maxima; V=20 m/sec
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Estimated mean maxima over various time intervals; edge bending V=20 m/sec
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Estimated mean maxima over various time intervals; edge bending V=20 m/sec
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Mean and standard deviation of 10-minute maxima; observed and fitted results
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Long-term distribution, including and excluding load randomness, given wind speed V
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Long-term distribution, uncertainty using N=4 or 8, 10-minute time histories

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