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Research Papers

A Comparison of Long-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Models

[+] Author and Article Information
Petros P. Kritharas1

Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology (CREST), Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UKp.kritharas@lboro.ac.uk

Simon J. Watson

Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology (CREST), Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TU, UKp.kritharas@lboro.ac.uk

1

Corresponding author.

J. Sol. Energy Eng 132(4), 041008 (Oct 04, 2010) (8 pages) doi:10.1115/1.4002346 History: Received September 08, 2009; Revised June 22, 2010; Published October 04, 2010; Online October 04, 2010

This paper presents a time series analysis of historical observations of wind speed in order to project future wind speed trends. For this study, 52 years of data have been used from seven suitable stations across the UK. Four parsimonious models have been employed, and the data were split into two different segments: the training and the validation data sets. During the fitting process, the optimum parameters for each model were determined in order to minimize the mean square error in the predictions. The results suggest that the seasonal pattern in wind speeds is the most important factor but that there is some monthly autocorrelation in the data, which can improve forecasts. This is confirmed by testing the four models with the model having considered both autocorrelation and seasonality achieving the smallest errors. The approach proposed for forecasting wind speeds a month ahead may be deemed useful to suppliers for purchasing base load in advance and to system operators for power system maintenance scheduling up to a month ahead.

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Copyright © 2010 by American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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Figures

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Figure 1

Wind power spectra at 10 m height agl: (a) strong diurnal peak and strong annual peak, (b) strong diurnal peak and weak annual peak, and (c) weak diurnal peak and strong annual peak

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Figure 2

Yearly mean wind speed per station

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Figure 3

Monthly mean wind speed averaged over all years per station

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Figure 4

Correlograms of monthly wind speed at Stornoway Airport: (a) autocorrelation function and (b) partial autocorrelation function

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Figure 5

Removing the seasonal component of wind speed at Stornoway Airport

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Figure 6

1 month ahead wind speed forecasts at Stornoway Airport (actual versus 1 month persistence)

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Figure 7

1 month ahead wind speed forecasts at Stornoway Airport (actual versus 12 month persistence)

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Figure 8

1 month ahead wind speed forecasts at Stornoway Airport (actual versus SES)

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Figure 9

1 month ahead wind speed forecasts at Stornoway Airport (actual versus SS)

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Figure 10

Absolute errors at Stornoway Airport

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