0
Article

On the Uncertainty of Wind Power Predictions—Analysis of the Forecast Accuracy and Statistical Distribution of Errors

[+] Author and Article Information
Matthias Lange

ForWind—Centre for Wind Energy Research, Institute of Physics, University of Oldenburg, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germanyenergy and meteo systems GmbH, Marie-Curie-Str. 1, 26129 Oldenburg, Germanye-mail: matthias.lange@energymeteo.de

J. Sol. Energy Eng 127(2), 177-184 (Apr 25, 2005) (8 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1862266 History: Received June 24, 2004; Revised November 14, 2004; Online April 25, 2005
Copyright © 2005 by ASME
Your Session has timed out. Please sign back in to continue.

References

Figures

Grahic Jump Location
Basic scheme of the wind power prediction system Previento which is based on a physical approach
Grahic Jump Location
Power curve of a typical wind turbine. The amplification of initial errors in the wind speed are amplified according to the slope of the power curve.
Grahic Jump Location
The forecast error of the wind speed prediction measured by rmse and its components according to Eq. (5) for the site Hilkenbrook
Grahic Jump Location
Relative bias of wind speed prediction for different sites for the investigated forecast horizons. The solid symbols denote sites in flat terrain while the open symbols refer to sites in slightly complex terrain.
Grahic Jump Location
Relative dispersion of wind speed prediction for different sites
Grahic Jump Location
Relative bias of power prediction for different sites for the investigated forecast horizons. The solid symbols denote sites in flat terrain while the open symbols refer to sites in slightly complex terrain.
Grahic Jump Location
Relative dispersion of power prediction for different sites
Grahic Jump Location
The forecast error of the power prediction measured by rmse and its components according to Eq. (5) for the site Hilkenbrook
Grahic Jump Location
Cross-correlation coefficients versus prediction time for wind speed prediction (solid symbols) and power prediction (white symbols)
Grahic Jump Location
Probability density of the deviations between predicted and measured wind speed at 10 m height and prediction time 12 h (shaded histogram). The solid lines shows a Gaussian distribution with the same mean and standard deviation.
Grahic Jump Location
Probability density of the deviations between predicted and measured power output prediction time 12 h (shaded histogram) where the deviations are normalized to rated power. The power prediction is based on the wind speed prediction used in Fig. 10. The solid lines shows a Gaussian distribution with the same mean and standard deviation.
Grahic Jump Location
Power curve of a pitch regulated wind turbine (solid line). For three different conditional wind speed distributions the resulting conditional distributions of the power are shown.
Grahic Jump Location
Comparison between the modelled distribution of power prediction errors (solid line) and the corresponding measured distribution (shaded histogram). The forecast horizon is 12 h.
Grahic Jump Location
Same as Fig. 13 but for a forecast horizon of 36 h

Tables

Errata

Discussions

Some tools below are only available to our subscribers or users with an online account.

Related Content

Customize your page view by dragging and repositioning the boxes below.

Related Journal Articles
Related eBook Content
Topic Collections

Sorry! You do not have access to this content. For assistance or to subscribe, please contact us:

  • TELEPHONE: 1-800-843-2763 (Toll-free in the USA)
  • EMAIL: asmedigitalcollection@asme.org
Sign In