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Article

On the Uncertainty of Wind Power Predictions—Analysis of the Forecast Accuracy and Statistical Distribution of Errors

[+] Author and Article Information
Matthias Lange

ForWind—Centre for Wind Energy Research, Institute of Physics, University of Oldenburg, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germanyenergy and meteo systems GmbH, Marie-Curie-Str. 1, 26129 Oldenburg, Germanye-mail: matthias.lange@energymeteo.de

J. Sol. Energy Eng 127(2), 177-184 (Apr 25, 2005) (8 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1862266 History: Received June 24, 2004; Revised November 14, 2004; Online April 25, 2005
Copyright © 2005 by ASME
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References

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Focken,  U., Lange,  M., Mönnich,  K., Waldl,  H.-P, Beyer,  H. G., and Luig,  A., “Short-term Prediction of the Aggregated Power Output of Wind Farms—a Statistical Analysis of the Reduction of the Prediction Error by Spatial Smoothing Effects,” J. Wind. Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 90, pp. 231–246.
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Lange, M., 2003, “Analysis of the Uncertainty of Wind Power Predictions,” Ph.D. thesis, University of Oldenburg, Oldenburg, http://docserver.bis.uni-oldenburg.de/publikationen/dissertation/2003/lanana03/lanana03.html.
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Figures

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Basic scheme of the wind power prediction system Previento which is based on a physical approach
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Power curve of a typical wind turbine. The amplification of initial errors in the wind speed are amplified according to the slope of the power curve.
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The forecast error of the wind speed prediction measured by rmse and its components according to Eq. (5) for the site Hilkenbrook
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Relative bias of wind speed prediction for different sites for the investigated forecast horizons. The solid symbols denote sites in flat terrain while the open symbols refer to sites in slightly complex terrain.
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Relative dispersion of wind speed prediction for different sites
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Relative bias of power prediction for different sites for the investigated forecast horizons. The solid symbols denote sites in flat terrain while the open symbols refer to sites in slightly complex terrain.
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Relative dispersion of power prediction for different sites
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The forecast error of the power prediction measured by rmse and its components according to Eq. (5) for the site Hilkenbrook
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Cross-correlation coefficients versus prediction time for wind speed prediction (solid symbols) and power prediction (white symbols)
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Probability density of the deviations between predicted and measured wind speed at 10 m height and prediction time 12 h (shaded histogram). The solid lines shows a Gaussian distribution with the same mean and standard deviation.
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Probability density of the deviations between predicted and measured power output prediction time 12 h (shaded histogram) where the deviations are normalized to rated power. The power prediction is based on the wind speed prediction used in Fig. 10. The solid lines shows a Gaussian distribution with the same mean and standard deviation.
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Power curve of a pitch regulated wind turbine (solid line). For three different conditional wind speed distributions the resulting conditional distributions of the power are shown.
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Comparison between the modelled distribution of power prediction errors (solid line) and the corresponding measured distribution (shaded histogram). The forecast horizon is 12 h.
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Same as Fig. 13 but for a forecast horizon of 36 h

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