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TECHNICAL PAPERS

Predicting the Long Term Distribution of Extreme Loads From Limited Duration Data: Comparing Full Integration and Approximate Methods

[+] Author and Article Information
LeRoy M. Fitzwater, C. Allin Cornell

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-4020

J. Sol. Energy Eng 124(4), 378-386 (Nov 08, 2002) (9 pages) doi:10.1115/1.1509768 History: Received February 01, 2002; Revised July 01, 2002; Online November 08, 2002
Copyright © 2002 by ASME
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References

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IEC/TC8, 1998, 61400-1 Wind Turbine Generator Systems - Part 1: Safety Requirements, International Electrotechnical Commission, Geneva, Switzerland.
McCoy, T. J., Malcom, D. J., and Griffin, D. A., 1999, “An Approach to the Development of Turbine Loads in Accordance with IEC 1400-1 and ISO 2394,” Proc. of 1999 ASME Wind Energy Symp. at 37th AIAA Areospace Sciences Meeting, AIAA-99-0020, Reno, NV, pp. 1–9.
Winterstein, S. R., and Kashef, T., 1999, “Moment-Based Load and Response Models With Wind Engineering Applications.” Proc. of 1999 ASME Wind Energy Symp., at 37th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting. AIAA-99-0068, Reno, NV, pp. 122–128.
Manuel, L., Veers, P. S., and Winterstein, S. R., 2001, “Parametric Models for Estimating Wind Turbine Fatigue Loads for Design,” Proc. of 2001 ASME Wind Energy Symp., at 39th AIAA Areospace Sciences Meeting, AIAA-2001-0047, Reno, NV, pp. 276–287.
Fitzwater, L. M., and Winterstein, S. R., 2001, “Predicting Design Wind Turbine Loads from Limited Data: Comparing Random Process and Random Peak Models,” Proc. of 2001 ASME Wind Energy Symp., at 39th AIAA Areospace Sciences Meeting, AIAA-2001-0046, Reno, NV, pp. 355–364.
Ronold,  K. O., and Larsen,  G. C., 1999, “Reliability-Based Design of Wind-Turbine Rotor Blades Against Failure in Ultimate Loading,” Eng. Struct., 22, pp. 565–574.
Atlantic Orient Corporation, www.aocwind.net, 2000, AOC 15/50 Specification.
Manuel, L., Kashef, T., and Winterstein, S. R., 1999, “Moment-Based Probability Modelling and Extreme Response Estimation: The FITS Routine, Version 1.2,” Tech. Report RMS–38, Reliability of Marine Structures Program, Civil and Environmental Engineering Dept., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA.
Rice, J. A., 1995, Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis, Second Edition, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA.
Veers, P. S., and Winterstein, S. R., 1997, “Application of Measured Loads to Wind Turbine Fatigue and Reliability Analysis,” Proc. ASME Wind Energy Symp., pp. 160–169.
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Figures

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10-min mean wind speed and turbulence intensity for 1800 10-min Gaussian wind input processes
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Observed mean and standard deviation of 10-min maximum responses for given 10-min mean wind speeds
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Probability of exceedance of 10-min load considering the short-term load at 90% fractile and turbulence intensity at prescribed deterministic levels compared with full distribution solution
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Probability of exceedance of 10-min load considering the load term at prescribed deterministic levels compared with full distribution solution
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Probability of exceedance of 10-min load considering load, turbulence intensity, and wind speed deterministically for both a) flap and b) edge loading
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Probability of exceedance of 10-min load considering three turbine conditions: 1) turbine operating over all wind speeds, 2) turbine parked over all wind speeds, 3) turbine operating below cutout wind speed and parked above cutout wind speed; for both a) flap and b) edge loading
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Regression of the moments of 10-min maximum on the 10-min mean wind speed for flap and edge bending
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Gumbel fit to observed data for operating and parked wind speeds, turbulence class A

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