A Four-Parameter Change-Point Model for Predicting Energy Consumption in Commercial Buildings

[+] Author and Article Information
David Ruch, David E. Claridge

Mechanical Engineering Department, Texas A&M University, College Station, 77843

J. Sol. Energy Eng 114(2), 77-83 (May 01, 1992) (7 pages) doi:10.1115/1.2929993 History: Received January 01, 1991; Revised July 01, 1991; Online June 06, 2008


This paper develops a four-parameter change-point model of energy consumption as a function of dry-bulb temperature, along with accompanying error diagnostics for the model’s parameters. The model is a generalization of the widely used three-parameter, or variable-base degree-day method. The model is applied to data from a case study grocery store, is compared to the three-parameter PRISM CO model of the store data, and is shown to provide a statistically better fit to consumption data below about 15°C. This model appears to be useful for diagnosing unexpected energy use in some buildings and should be useful for determining retrofit energy savings from monitored pre-retrofit and post-retrofit data for the class of buildings whose pre-retrofit consumption is fit by a four-parameter linear change-point model.

Copyright © 1992 by The American Society of Mechanical Engineers
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